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	<title>Savory Ape &#187; prediction</title>
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	<description>Progressive Internet Solutions</description>
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		<title>CompInfoFuture Homework 11: Class Applicability to Research</title>
		<link>http://savoryape.com/2009/12/compinfofuture-homework-11-class-applicability-to-research/</link>
		<comments>http://savoryape.com/2009/12/compinfofuture-homework-11-class-applicability-to-research/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 06 Dec 2009 02:39:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>chrishota</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Computing, Information, and the Future]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aimee Mullins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[flip-phone]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Motorola]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Peter Drucker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[prediction]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RAZR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Star Trek]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://savoryape.com/?p=134</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Discuss briefly the applicability or inapplicability of the discussion from Monday 10/26 (Prediction vs. Intervention; Weather vs. Climate) to your project. In any discussion about the future, there will always be a bit of &#8220;wiggle room&#8221; as our current understanding of anything (technology, in this case), can—at worst—prove to be totally irrelevant to the technology [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<ol>
<li>Discuss briefly the applicability or inapplicability of the <a href="http://computinginformationandthefuture.blogspot.com/2009/10/prediction-vs-intervention-weather-vs.html">discussion from Monday 10/26</a> (Prediction vs. Intervention; Weather vs. Climate) to your project.
<ul>
<li>In any discussion about the future, there will always be a bit of &#8220;wiggle room&#8221; as our current understanding of anything (technology, in this case), can—at worst—prove to be totally irrelevant to the technology of tomorrow.</li>
<li>It seems that our best methods for prediction can only give us a short glimpse into the possibilities of short-term events; iterative technologies can be taken axiomatically to keep on iterating, but true innovation is forever obscured. If innovation could be predicted, then the predicted technology would have already been created!</li>
<li><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Drucker">Peter Drucker</a>, self-described &#8220;social ecologist,&#8221; noted that &#8220;the best way to predict the future is to create it.&#8221; This gets to the crux of the prediction vs intervention debate; namely, that since we are interacting with the system we are predicting (that being the technology of the world), and prediction we make about the system will necessarily affect the future of the system. There are numerous examples of this happening; my favorite is the Star Trek original series&#8217; communicator, which was consciously adopted by Motorola in the design of the most popular phone ever, the flip-phone RAZR.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Discuss briefly the applicability or inapplicability of the <a href="http://computinginformationandthefuture.blogspot.com/2009/10/some-robot-pics-and-videos.html">discussion from Wednesday 10/28</a> (Robots!) to your project.
<ul>
<li>In the <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u23Hqq8QbeE">Samara/Monocopter (Maple Seed) video</a>, one thing that struck me was the use of the fabricator machine; where the developer of the device said that he didn&#8217;t need to know how to machine metal or anything, he could &#8220;print out&#8221; his device.</li>
<li>In a larger sense, the Petman video demonstrates the growing understanding of natural gait in walking, which will be important in an augmented human. Some of the other projects showcased demonstrated the use of non-hominid walking systems, which, also, would be useful as &#8220;post-human&#8221; prostheses, as Aimee Mullins (<a href="http://www.ted.com/talks/view/id/482">and her 12 pairs of legs</a>) attest.</li>
<li>Such prosthetic systems could be automatically controlled by software, freeing the user to dedicate brain power to other, more fruitful goals.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Advance your project. What&#8217;s new?
<ul>
<li>Continuing to dump raw project materials into <a href="https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0B4oe1goNy5B-YTExOTRjZGEtMmI2ZC00MWYxLWExMWYtYTUwMzVlZDUwZTQw&amp;hl=en">my off-brain storage mechanism</a>.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ol>
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		<title>CompInfoFuture Homework 4: Delphi Redux and Project</title>
		<link>http://savoryape.com/2009/09/delphi-redux-and-project/</link>
		<comments>http://savoryape.com/2009/09/delphi-redux-and-project/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 23 Sep 2009 19:19:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>chrishota</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Computing, Information, and the Future]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[delphi method]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[final project]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[futurism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[prediction]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[technology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[transhumanism]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://savoryape.com/?p=80</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[If your Delphi question was done in class on Wednesday 9/9 (i.e. &#8220;today&#8221;), then find the median and the range of the middle 50% of the responses. Using a graphics editor of your choice (even paint works for this), make a graph that is analogous or similar to the one in the lecture notes, showing [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<ol>
<li>If your Delphi question was done in class on Wednesday 9/9 (i.e. &#8220;today&#8221;), then find the median and the range of the middle 50% of the responses. Using a graphics editor of your choice (even paint works for this), make a graph that is analogous or similar to the one in the lecture notes, showing the total range, middle 50% range, and median.
<ul>
<li>My topic was not discussed because I was sick with pneumonia. However, I did write down the responses for James Canada&#8217;s question: &#8220;When will there be a move from PCs and laptops to all-in-one devices that have telephone, internet, etc. When will the downfall of the PC happen? When will marketshare of all-in-ones outpace PCs?&#8221;</li>
<li>The middle 50% responses were: 5, 5.5, 7, 8, 12 (I have discarded the &#8220;infinity&#8221; answer). The median is 7 (mean is 7.5). The range is 5 to 12.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Recall that a project is part of the course, and this project will grow step by step throughout the semester. In other words, you will keep adding to it as we go along, so that in the end it will be a piece of work you can be proud of! Make up a tentative plan for your term project, which will be a paper, software system, combination, skit or musical performance or painting (if you are a fine arts major), or whatever it is. You may analyze the same topic as you used for your Delphi exercise, or change topics but include the Delphi results as an appendix or supplemental report. Also, answer the question, &#8220;What would be a good thing to do next on this project?&#8221;
<ul>
<li>For my project, I would like to examine by comparing, contrasting, and extrapolating on the depiction of human-computer interaction in entertainment (movies, books, short stories) and technical literature. The final form of the project will be a multimedia presentation (similar to the one we viewed at the beginning of class) and perhaps an interactive part describing my findings.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ol>
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